Getting a bunch of these in since im going out of town for a few days. I take the lesson learned from the last sealed and get greedy... maybe too greedy.
note: it seems the audio is desynched in the deckbuilding, I'm trying to figure out how to fix it, but until then it's still an interesting build... even on mute :).
note2: now fixed! I cut out the first minute where the audio was missing, but not much but rare sorting there.
So was this too greedy? I'm not sure. I guess i would've been fine not splashing blue and leaving furnace celebration in the board. Hard to judge the celebration since i didn't draw it often, and the one time it hit play it was promptly removed. One thing I'm pretty sure about is that I was playing at least one too many fatties, but I'm not sure which one. Potentially the giant infector since that's the one I sideboarded out most often, but that was just the way the matchups worked out, so I'm not 100% sure. I certainly had too much "clunk" in my draws, and a hill giant would have eased that up a bit.
An interesting card is lead the stampede. It was clearly bonkers for me here, but is it always an autoplay? Here are some interesting numbers I crunched.
I only included 13-18, since I figure you arent normally going to run less than 13 creatures and also play green, since green doesn't have much else. Running more than 18 creatures seems pretty rare, but obviously LTS just gets better in that strange all creature + 2x LTS pool.
So what do all those numbers tell us? I think the best card to compare it with is counsel of the soratami. We see that at 16 creatures, LTS is on average a counsel, except it only draw creatures. That is pretty much always better than counsel unless you are digging for a land or a non-creature answer. I guess there's some risk involved, but we see it only completely whiffs less than 7% of the time. And it draws 2 or more 2/3s of the time. A quarter of the time its drawing only 1 creature, but thats somewhat similar to drawing a creature and a land off of a counsel, at least when you dont need the land. The bottom line is, I think that at 16 creatures or more, it should only very rarely be cut, and I honestly don't think I ever would. I never cut counsels in a blue deck, and I've even splashed them occasionally.
Now what about at less than 16, say 13-14 creatures? Or less? I think here there's two things to look at. At what point does the risk of whiffing get too high, and how willing are we to play a card that just draws a single creature. I think the answer to both questions lies in what bombs you have. If you have bombtastic creatures to dig into, like in this pool, I think its almost always going to be worth the risk. Much like I have no problem playing clone shell in a deck with something like carniflex demon and myr battlesphere but only 8 creatures total. Even if you whiff, its still at least digging towards your bombs. With the added bonus of sometimes just hitting the nuts, I think in this format, that's always going to be worth it.
I think the only time I cut it when I'm green is if I have less than 12 creatures and none of them great, but in that case, I'm not sure what the hell i'd be doing playing green....